From: <Saved by Microsoft Internet Explorer 5>
Subject: The Observer | Business | Housing: still a dead cert?
Date: Sun, 9 Nov 2003 18:06:25 -0000
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    <TD vAlign=3Dtop=20
      height=3D1><!-- Vignette V/5 Sun Nov 09 00:54:47 2003 --><FONT=20
      face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D5><B>Housing: still a =
dead=20
      cert?</B></FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif =
size=3D3>In=20
      the second of our series, Faisal Islam wonders if a continued =
property=20
      shortage can really stop the bubble bursting</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT=20
      face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2><B>Sunday November 9, =
2003<BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/">The Observer</A></B>=20
      <BR><BR></FONT><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif =
size=3D2>Homeowners=20
      spooked by their rising monthly mortgage bills may try to seek =
some solace=20
      in the very big picture. Now that the Bank of England is hiking =
base=20
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          <TD width=3D212 colSpan=3D2 =
height=3D12></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>rates, some=20
      consolation may come from immigration, family break-ups, and =
Britain's=20
      inability to build houses. Perhaps.=20
      <P>For the optimists, the housing market is still a one-way bet =
simply=20
      because of those long-run pressures that are increasing demand for =
homes=20
      far in excess of a relatively static supply. The Bank has shown =
some=20
      support for this argument.=20
      <P>'Over the longer term, demographic changes were working to =
increase the=20
      demand for housing, and hence for mortgage debt relative to the =
population=20
      of working age,' said an analysis in August's Inflation Report . =
There has=20
      been a steady increase in the number of owner- occupiers, but a =
dramatic=20
      increase in the number of households. This reflects very long-run =
changes=20
      to Britain's economic and social fabric chiefly based on family =
break-ups,=20
      and therefore an increasing trend for one-person households.=20
      <P>The recent census showed that there were 6.5 million one-person =

      households in the UK. This represents 30 per cent of Britain's =
21.7=20
      million households, up from 26 per cent a decade ago. Just over a =
third of=20
      that total (2.4 million) are female pensioners. Among the =
3,376,000=20
      non-pensioner one-person households, male occupants outnumber =
women by=20
      three to two.=20
      <P>So, from these facts, optimists deduce that the housing market =
will be=20
      buoyed up by, for example, demand from increasing numbers of =
divorced men.=20

      <P>Similarly, immigration, particularly in London and the South =
East, will=20
      inevitably increase demand for housing. Government projections =
show=20
      Britain's population increasing from 59 million to 65 million by =
2025,=20
      with two-thirds of that caused by net migration.=20
      <P>In America, currently in the throes of a housing boom, Federal =
Reserve=20
      chairman Alan Greenspan has singled out immigration as a principal =
reason=20
      why the boom is sustainable and not a specu lative bubble. 'Census =
data=20
      suggest that one-third to one-half of new household formations in =
recent=20
      years result directly from immigration,' he told US bankers =
earlier this=20
      year. 'The overall level of new home construction appears to be =
well=20
      supported by steady household formation.'=20
      <P>So even the most conservative of central bankers have given =
their seal=20
      of approval to this sort of analysis of the housing market's =
long-term=20
      future. Where Britain parts company with the US is on the supply =
of=20
      housing - which in the UK has remained alarmingly static over the =
past=20
      decade and failed to respond to the growth incentive provided by =
rocketing=20
      prices. Greenspan says this is a geographical matter. 'There is no =

      national housing market in the US. Local conditions dominate, even =
though=20
      mortgage interest rates are similar throughout the country. Home =
prices in=20
      Portland, Maine do not arbitrage those in Portland, Oregon. Thus, =
any=20
      bubbles that might emerge would tend to be local, not national, in =
scope,'=20
      he said.=20
      <P>But the medicine man of the global economy is also on record as =
saying=20
      that a bubble 'is easier in England because it's a smaller =
geographical=20
      area'.=20
      <P>The US market functions better, because there is space and=20
      comparatively few limitations on allowing housebuilders to respond =
to high=20
      prices. The US is also more diversified.=20
      <P>But the UK's comparative lack of supply is no reason for=20
      ever-increasing prices. HSBC's UK economist, John Butler, =
specifically=20
      points to the inconsistency between arguments about housing =
shortages and=20
      recent regional trends in prices.=20
      <P>'The northern regions have led the charge up over the past few =
years,=20
      while the South - where the greater housing shortage exists - has =
lagged=20
      well behind. That is the opposite to what you would expect if =
housing=20
      shortages were the main reason for the boom. Everyone cites supply =

      problems, when demand is booming,' he warns.=20
      <P>International precedents show that supply restrictions will not =
stop a=20
      bubble bursting. Japan has even greater pressures on space than =
Britain,=20
      and broadly comparable long-run population trends. Yet prices have =
been=20
      falling for more than a decade. Hong Kong's real estate is still =
worth=20
      only half of what it was five years ago, yet the territory is not =
exactly=20
      overflowing with building space. Nor could that crash (or the =
preceding=20
      boom) be attributed to demographics.=20
      <P>'In the long run, these trends are important - but anyone =
saying that a=20
      few thousand households could stop a housing market crash has =
forgotten=20
      about the late Eighties,' says Gavin Cameron, an economist and =
property=20
      market specialist at Oxford University.=20
      <P>Academic economists are scathing about the suggestion that =
strong=20
      growth in migration or continuing family break-up will support =
Britain's=20
      housing habit.=20
      <P>'These factors are slowly evolving over time and are supportive =
to=20
      house prices over the long run,' adds Cameron. 'But demographic =
changes=20
      are sufficiently smooth that they won't explain year-to-year =
shifts or=20
      even the boom over the past five years.'=20
      <P>Ed Stansfield, property specialist at Capital Economics, =
agrees: 'Look=20
      back to 1988, house prices were ticking along at 30 per cent and =
then,=20
      without any change in demographics, inflation was negative. =
Short-term=20
      valuations are driven by earnings and affordability,' he says.=20
      <P>But surely the huge rise in single person households will have =
pushed=20
      up prices in a housing market with about 1.5 million sales per =
year?=20
      <P>'It is a big rise, and housebuilding has been weak, but you =
start from=20
      a position in the Seventies, where we had healthy surpluses. The=20
      demographics have been tightening the market, but only at the =
margin,'=20
      says Stansfield.=20
      <P>'Ultimately, it is what people are earning and what banks are =
prepared=20
      to lend them that ties prices down in the long run - and that's =
what we=20
      think is happening now.'=20
      <P>And for the truly heroic optimist there are other pitfalls to =
relying=20
      on demographics. Trends tend to change almost as soon as they are=20
      identified. Immigration may be a factor bolstering demand now, but =
it is=20
      not unlikely that politicians would limit it. The overwhelming =
shortage of=20
      housing in the South East stands to be at least attenuated by John =

      Prescott's housebuilding plans. But there is some anecdotal =
evidence of=20
      professionals giving up on the expensive, congested 'grim South' =
and=20
      heading for other parts of the country.=20
      <P>'These ex-post rationalisations [of very high house prices] =
seem=20
      reminiscent of those arguments used to justify the surge in =
corporate debt=20
      during the late Nineties,' says Butler - and we all know where =
that ended.=20

      <P><A=20
      =
href=3D"mailto:faisal.islam@observer.co.uk">faisal.islam@observer.co.uk</=
A></FONT><BR><!-- Vignette V/5 Sun Nov 09 00:54:49 2003 --><!-- Start =
article trailblock widget --><BR><FONT=20
      face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2><B>Read the first article =
in the=20
      series</B><BR>02.11.2003: <A=20
      =
href=3D"http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1075715,00.h=
tml">Bricks=20
      and mortar could turn into a house of cards</A><BR><BR><BR><!-- =
End article trailblock widget --><BR><!-- Vignette V/5 Sun Nov 09 =
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