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The = Sunday Times=20 - Property

June 15,=20 2003

The=20 Market: How fast is the market=20 falling?
Only the=20 most chipper estate agents are still = talking big=20 price rises, and economists are gloomy. = Yet Graham=20 Norwood finds pockets of=20 = optimism

Market=20 pessimism from last week after a profits = warning=20 from Countrywide, Britain=92s largest = estate agency=20 business and owner of high-street chains = such as=20 Bairstow Eves, Beresford Adams and John D = Wood.=20

The company says full-year profits will = be=20 =93substantially below=94 its =A370m = predictions and=20 blames a shortage of first-time buyers and = an=20 over-supply of homes on sale, leading to = longer=20 chains and slower purchases.=20

Most ominous is the fact that only 100 = of=20 Countrywide=92s agents operate in London = and south=20 east England =97 an indication that the = slowdown is=20 spreading across the UK. Additionally, = most=20 Countrywide agencies sell homes at average = or just=20 above-average prices, suggesting that = falling=20 sales and prices now affect more than just = the top=20 of the market.=20

More evidence of a = sharper-than-expected=20 slowdown is expected tomorrow, when the = National=20 Association of Estate Agents releases data = showing=20 the average UK agent sold 40% fewer = properties=20 last month than in May 2002.=20

A survey of prices achieved by the=20 association=92s 9,500 members shows that = annual=20 house price inflation has slowed to just = 8% =97 in=20 its last survey in the new year, the = figure was=20 18%. Critically, the proportion of = purchases made=20 last month by first-time buyers =97 widely = regarded=20 as a key driver of the market =97 was just = 14%. A=20 year ago it was 25%, falling to 21% in = January and=20 then 18% in April.=20

Despite this data many estate agents, = perhaps=20 unsurprisingly, prefer to adopt the soft = landing=20 view. They say house prices will rise = moderately,=20 with falls restricted to London and the = southeast=20 of England. But many economists, by = contrast,=20 predict widespread price falls throughout = the UK=20 in 2004 =97 with values dropping further = between=20 2004 and 2006, by as much as 20%.=20

Which theory turns out to be right may=20 determine if and when John Barker sells = his=20 two-bedroom flat in Surrey.=20

Barker, a telecoms executive, is one of = many=20 owners in the southeast who are slashing = prices=20 but still cannot sell their homes. He put = the flat=20 on sale last October for =A3320,000, = ignoring advice=20 from one agent to market it at =A3350,000. =

Even at 10% less, Barker has had only = two=20 offers in eight months =97 both from = first-time=20 buyers who later withdrew because they = could not=20 afford deposits. Now Barker has reduced = his asking=20 price by a further 10% to =A3285,000.=20

=93It=92s one of four flats converted = from a=20 Victorian semi in Richmond =97 classic = first-timer=20 territory. When I purchased it as a = first-time=20 buyer in 1999, flats were snapped up = within days,=20 at over the asking price. Today, = everything on=20 sale here has been around for months,=94 = he claims.=20

If the flat shifts quickly after the = latest=20 price cut, agents will have been proven = correct.=20 If it needs a further reduction, = pessimistic=20 economists can say =93we told you so=94.=20

Although they cannot agree on future = market=20 movement, both sides agree on two factors. =

First, that the market is down from its = usual=20 spring high. At one point price rises were = approaching 25% this year. New figures = from=20 Halifax and Nationwide show rises of 22.7% = and=20 21.3% respectively for this year and both = firms=20 say this will fall to 10% by Christmas.=20

Everybody agrees London has been worst = hit.=20 Property Vision and Prime Purchase, buying = agents=20 at the top end of the market, reckon = Chelsea=20 suffered 15% to 20% drops in the spring, = while=20 selling agents such as Bradford & = Bingley say=20 =93average=94 houses lost 10%.=20

The typical age of a Greater London = first-time=20 buyer =97 such as those targeted by John = Barker =97 is=20 32 or younger; they are deterred by the = need for=20 high deposits and big loans, so many = developers=20 and estate agents are slashing prices even = in=20 cheap areas.=20

The other big losers have been owners = of=20 country houses priced at more than = =A3750,000 across=20 southern England.=20

The further from London, the better the = market.=20 The Peter Alan chain of estate agents in = south=20 Wales expects local prices to have risen = 10%=20 already in 2003; in Scotland, estate = agents Slater=20 Hogg & Howison says the average = Glasgow house=20 price has risen 7% in the last three = months alone;=20 Strutt & Parker estate agent Sharon = Thatcher,=20 at Morpeth in Northumberland, says = business is as=20 good as last autumn, adding:=20

=93So far so good. No slowdown and = prices still=20 gently rising.=94=20

A typical beneficiary of the buoyant = market far=20 from London is Nick Myerscough, a = veterinary=20 surgeon. He put his three-bedroom house = near=20 Morpeth on the market last month for = =A3300,000.=20 =93Within a week we had three offers of = the asking=20 price,=94 he says.=20

He is buying a larger home with 12 = acres of=20 grounds for =A3500,000, having used = personal=20 contacts to secure the property before it = went on=20 the open market. =93Had it gone public it = would have=20 fetched more. Things are ultra-competitive = here,=94=20 he says.=20

But if agents and economists agree = about these=20 factors, they are poles apart about what = happens=20 next. In particular, they clash over = whether=20 prices will drop more, how long the slump = will=20 last, and whether it will spread across = the UK.=20

=93The greatest weakness will be in the = higher=20 part of the market =97 there will still be = problems=20 for properties above =A3750,000 and that = will=20 trickle down to properties over =A3400,000 = by=20 autumn,=94 says Richard Donnell, head of = research at=20 estate agents FPDSavills.=20

=93But interest rates remain low, = making the=20 mainstream market very resilient. The = expensive=20 London and country properties having most = trouble=20 actually represent a tiny share of = transactions.=94=20

Donnell also says affordability is not = all bad=20 news. For example, the typical property = now costs=20 five times the average income, which he = accepts is=20 a cause for concern; but because of low = interest=20 rates, the proportion of income used to = pay the=20 mortgage is the lowest for 30 years, at = 25%.=20

He predicts 10% rises this year, 4% in = 2004,=20 and higher increases thereafter =97 so for = most=20 homeowners, rises above inflation for the=20 indefinite future.=20

Other agents are even more bullish: = =93London has=20 been hit with fewer buyers, but May saw = slow signs=20 of recovery with viewing figures steadily = rising=20 for the past five weeks. Prices are = stabilising,=94=20 says Deryck Highet of Bradford & = Bingley.=20

These views are sharply contradicted by = economists, who calculate homes in many = areas are=20 seriously overvalued following big rises = each year=20 since 2000.=20

=93There=92s no way of stopping prices = falling when=20 property is this overvalued,=94 says = Sabina Kalyan,=20 an economist at consultancy Capital = Economics.=20

=93May figures from the Halifax and = Nationwide=20 are blips caused by the end of the Iraq = war. We=20 study three-month price cycles and the = trend is=20 slowing more than estate agents admit. = It=92s=20 nonsense to assume rises will diminish to = a magic=20 figure like 5% or 3% and then stop dead. = Prices=20 across most of the UK will fall next year = and in=20 2005.=94=20

Capital Economics says annual house = inflation=20 will be 8% by December, then continue = downwards=20 until average house prices drop in real = terms by=20 20% by the end of 2006.=20

Housing Outlook, a group of economic = academics=20 based in Oxford and Dublin, is also = pessimistic.=20 It says the market remains =93extremely = fragile=94 and=20 could be made worse if mortgage lenders = extend=20 repayment loans beyond 25 years and = increase the=20 size of loans to encourage more borrowers. =

=93It would provoke another upward = surge in=20 prices, possibly to be followed by a = bigger=20 collapse later on,=94 the group warns.=20

Even the spectre of long-term price = falls as=20 predicted by economists will not be bad = news to=20 everybody in the property market.=20

Designer Charlotte Emery, 34, sold her = one-bed=20 flat in Marylebone, central London, for = =A3205,000=20 earlier this year to cash in on predicted = price=20 falls. She now rents a flat nearby for = =A3811 a=20 month and says she will buy next summer, = by which=20 time she thinks London prices will have = dropped=20 another 20%.=20

=93In theory, paying =A310,000 a year = in rent is a=20 waste, but not if prices fall,=94 says = Emery, who=20 wants to buy an apartment in north London = priced=20 up to =A3250,000 in mid-2004.=20

=93If that flat is on sale now it=92ll = be =A3280,000=20 to =A3300,000, but within a year it=92ll = be in my=20 price range,=94 she says. =93I study the = market every=20 week. I know I=92m right about this.=94=20 =

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normal; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #7e7ead; LINE-HEIGHT: = 12px; FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; = TEXT-DECORATION: none } .datebold { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 10px; = FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .tdnav { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #ffffff; LINE-HEIGHT: 11px; = FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; BACKGROUND-COLOR: = #333333; TEXT-DECORATION: none } A.level1 { FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: = 12px; FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; = TEXT-DECORATION: none } A.level1:visited { FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: = 12px; FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; = TEXT-DECORATION: none } A.level1:hover { FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #999999; LINE-HEIGHT: = 12px; FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; = TEXT-DECORATION: none } 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Helvetica,sans-serif; = TEXT-DECORATION: none } .promotextsmall { FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 9px; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 11px; = FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .header { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #660000; LINE-HEIGHT: 11px; = FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .popcopy { FONT-WEIGHT: normal; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: = 12px; FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; = TEXT-DECORATION: none } .poptext { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #333333; LINE-HEIGHT: 12px; = FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: none } .popheadline { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 12px; COLOR: #000000; LINE-HEIGHT: 14px; = FONT-FAMILY: verdana, arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: = none } A.poptext { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #660000; FONT-FAMILY: = verdana, arial, Helvetica,sans-serif; TEXT-DECORATION: none 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Geneva } .spacer14 { FONT-SIZE: 14px; LINE-HEIGHT: normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: = Verdana, Arial, Geneva } .price { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 11px; COLOR: #990000; LINE-HEIGHT: = normal; FONT-STYLE: normal; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Geneva } .from { FONT-WEIGHT: lighter; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #990000; FONT-STYLE: = italic; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Geneva } .from2 { FONT-WEIGHT: lighter; FONT-SIZE: 9px; COLOR: #990000; FONT-STYLE: = italic; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Geneva } .discount { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10px; COLOR: #333333; FONT-STYLE: normal; = FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Geneva } .discount2 { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 9px; COLOR: #333333; FONT-STYLE: normal; = FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Geneva } .buynow { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 11px; COLOR: #003366; FONT-STYLE: normal; = FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Geneva } .retailername { FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10px; TEXT-TRANSFORM: uppercase; COLOR: = #333333; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, 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