From: <Saved by Microsoft Internet Explorer 5>
Subject: Guardian Unlimited | The Guardian | In search of a soft landing
Date: Tue, 17 Sep 2002 18:54:31 +0100
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          <TD width=3D126 bgColor=3D#999999 height=3D18><FONT=20
            face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif color=3D#ffffff =
size=3D2><B>In this=20
            section</B> </FONT></TD></TR>
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        <TR align=3Dleft>
          <TD bgColor=3D#ffffff colSpan=3D2><FONT =
face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif=20
            size=3D1><!-- other headlines --><A=20
            =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/analysis/story/0,3604,791296,00.html">C=
ome=20
            back when you're really sick</A>
            <P></FONT></P></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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    <TD vAlign=3Dtop><!-- Vignette V/5 Tue Aug 06 06:00:35 2002 --><FONT =

      face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2>Analysis </FONT><BR>
      <HR noShade SIZE=3D1>
      <FONT face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D5><B>In search of a =
soft=20
      landing</B></FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif =

      size=3D3>Analysts expect that the housing market will correct =
itself,=20
      bringing prices back into line with incomes, but how and when =
remain open=20
      to debate</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif=20
      size=3D2><B>Heather Stewart<BR>Tuesday August 6, 2002<BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/">The Guardian</A></B>=20
      <BR><BR></FONT><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif =
size=3D2>Britain's housing=20
      market defies gravity. Yesterday's Halifax building society =
housing=20
      figures showed prices rose another 1.9% in July alone, leaving =
them more=20
      than a fifth higher than a year ago - in the face of a downturn in =
much of=20
      the economy. Figures from the Nationwide last week told a similar =
story.=20
      <P>Almost everyone - from economists to the mortgage-lenders =
themselves -=20
      agrees that, with average earnings growing at around 4% a year, =
property=20
      price rises of 20% are simply unaffordable, and some sort of =
downward=20
      correction will inevitably follow.=20
      <P>"In London and the south-east, prices are probably about 20% =
too high,"=20
      says Dr Gavin Cameron, a lecturer in economics at Oxford =
University who=20
      specialises in the housing market. "The question is whether the =
correction=20
      happens quickly or slowly."=20
      <P>With price-to-earnings ratios up at late-80s levels and =
analysts=20
      debating when, not whether, a slowdown will come, now is a good =
time to=20
      ask how we got here - why Britain's housing market has failed to =
come off=20
      the boil.=20
      <P>One answer lies in the "crowded island" thesis. The number of=20
      households in Britain is rising; since the financial =
liberalisation of the=20
      "greed is good" 1980s, everyone wants to own their own home - and =
not=20
      enough new houses are being built to accommodate them all.=20
      <P>"Builders are constructing the lowest number of homes at any =
time in=20
      the postwar period," says Ryan Emmett, an economist at the Royal=20
      Institution of Chartered Surveyors. "The supply shortage has come =
into=20
      play more than it did in the last boom."=20
      <P>The right-to-buy scheme, in which council tenants are allowed =
to buy=20
      their homes at below market rates, is also blamed for fuelling the =
boom,=20
      because once the ex-council properties are resold, market forces =
let rip=20
      and prices soar. Good for their owners - bad for those looking for =

      low-cost housing.=20
      <P>Recent noises from Whitehall suggest the government is taking =
it=20
      seriously. The Treasury announced extra cash in last month's =
spending=20
      review, which the department of the deputy prime minister will =
spend on=20
      increasing the supply of affordable housing at the bottom end of =
the=20
      market; and it will try to free up planning constraints so that =
the stock=20
      of houses can be topped up more quickly. There have also been =
hints that=20
      the right-to-buy scheme could be abolished.=20
      <P>But economists point out that these are small-scale, long-term =
policy=20
      measures which are unlikely to affect the current boom. And the =
squeeze=20
      between the number of new households and the number of new homes =
is not=20
      new. Although demand is outstripping supply, housing completions =
have been=20
      fairly stable since the mid-1990s.=20
      <P>"Although the number of housebuilding completions has stagnated =
in the=20
      1990s, the situation has not worsened dramatically - at least not =
enough=20
      to explain the current soaring house price inflation," says Sabina =
Kalyan=20
      of Capital Economics.=20
      <P>So long-term structural factors, such as the supply of homes, =
cannot=20
      fully explain the boom. They certainly don't explain price rises =
of up to=20
      20%. To understand the current bubble, most analysts think we have =
to look=20
      at the shorter-term, more obvious explanation: it's cheap to =
borrow.=20
      <P>After the Bank of England's confidence-boosting rate cuts last =
year,=20
      base rates now stand at a 38-year low of 4%. With unemployment at =
its=20
      lowest since the mid-70s, buyers have seen no reason to stay out =
of the=20
      market. Despite the cautionary tale of the sorry end to the 1980s =
boom,=20
      borrowers have been rushing into the markets, betting on the fact =
that=20
      rates are set to stay low.=20
      <P>For the time being, it looks as if they may be right. Six =
months ago,=20
      an early rise in interest rates to dampen the housing market =
looked=20
      likely. Analysts predicted a rapid recovery from the downturn that =
hit the=20
      world's largest economies late last year, and the Bank showed =
signs of=20
      fretting about households' growing levels of indebtedness.=20
      <P>Since the sharp falls in the equity markets over the past =
month, and=20
      renewed evidence yesterday that manufacturers have yet to escape =
the grip=20
      of last year's painful recession, the City has pushed back its=20
      expectations of a rate rise to next year at the earliest. Some =
voices are=20
      even beginning to call for a cut.=20
      <P>But it may not take an increase in borrowing costs to put a =
dampener on=20
      the housing market. Anecdotally, there are already reports that=20
      cash-strapped first-time buyers are finding it hard to keep up =
with price=20
      rises - and if the flow of new buyers dries up, there is a =
knock-on effect=20
      throughout the market.=20
      <P>The extra oomph given to the market by landlords who have =
bought to let=20
      also seems to be easing off, which could help put the brakes on =
the=20
      market. There are signs that the rental market, in London at =
least, has=20
      become saturated, with rents actually falling.=20
      <P>Finally, the sharp falls in equity markets over the past month =
will=20
      probably feed through to house prices in the medium term. When =
billions=20
      are wiped off equity markets, everyone with money in the stock =
markets=20
      gets poorer. Consumers looking at their shrinking pension =
statements and=20
      depleted equity ISAs are unlikely to be keen on piling into the =
housing=20
      market - so declining prices create "negative wealth effects". =
Property=20
      prices are likely to suffer the knock-on effects in the months and =
years=20
      ahead.=20
      <P>With interest rate rises looking a long way off, this =
soft-landing=20
      scenario seems the most likely to many economists. Buy-to-let =
looks less=20
      like a sure-fire quick buck; first-time buyers are being priced =
out of the=20
      market; and lower equity prices will make us all feel worse off. =
In this=20
      picture, gravity grips on the housing market fairly gently, easing =
it to=20
      affordable levels. Those who took advantage of rock-bottom =
interest rates=20
      to stack up extra debt will have to hope it is the right one.=20
      <P><A=20
      =
href=3D"mailto:heather.stewart@guardian.co.uk">heather.stewart@guardian.c=
o.uk</A>=20
      </FONT><BR><!-- Vignette V/5 Tue Aug 06 06:00:36 2002 --><!-- =
Start article trailblock widget --><BR><FONT=20
      face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2><B>Calculators</B><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Money/calculator/form/0,1456,603156,00.=
html">Mortgage=20
      repayment</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Money/calculator/form/0,1456,603157,00.=
html">Mortgage=20
      amount</A><BR><BR><B>Special reports</B><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Money/houseprices/0,1456,594818,00.html=
">House=20
      prices</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Money/interestrates/0,6453,594819,00.ht=
ml">Interest=20
      rates</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Shopping/household/page/0,1586,682652,0=
0.html">Shopping:=20
      guide to property websites</A><BR><BR><B>Related =
sections</B><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Money/homebuying/mortgages/0,1456,56776=
1,00.html">Mortgages</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.guardian.co.uk/Money/homebuying/movinghome/0,1456,5677=
64,00.html">Moving=20
      home</A><BR><BR><B>Useful links</B><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.housing.detr.gov.uk/" target=3D_NEW>Government =
housing=20
      policy</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.housing.dtlr.gov.uk/information/index16.htm"=20
      target=3D_NEW>Starter Home Initiative</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.housingcorp.gov.uk/" target=3D_NEW>The Housing=20
      Corporation</A><BR><A href=3D"http://www.ihos.org.uk/"=20
      target=3D_NEW>Independent housing ombudsman</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.housingnet.co.uk/" target=3D_NEW>UK housing =
information=20
      resource</A><BR><A =
href=3D"http://www.mortgagecode.org.uk/mortgagecode.html"=20
      target=3D_NEW>Mortgage Code Compliance Board</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.naea.co.uk/" target=3D_NEW>National Association =
of Estate=20
      Agents</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.cml.org.uk/servlet/dycon/zt-cml/cml/live/en/cml/home" =

      target=3D_NEW>Council of Mortgage Lenders</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.easier2move.co.uk/" target=3D_NEW>Easier2move - =
online=20
      conveyancing</A><BR><A href=3D"http://www.upmystreet.com/"=20
      target=3D_NEW>UpMyStreet - the guide to your =
neighbourhood</A><BR><BR><BR><!-- End article trailblock widget --><!-- =
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