From: <Saved by Microsoft Internet Explorer 5>
Subject: Guardian Unlimited Observer | Business | Property needs dose of cold turkey
Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2002 00:14:26 -0000
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            =
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            faces break-up bid from venture =
capitalists</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
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            cautionary tale for the euro</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
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            probes new bail-out for BE as losses =
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            barons place bets as the going gets =
heavy</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
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            flies into subsidy storm</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
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            Comment</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
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            maintains an appetite for the =
Herald</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
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            job is made to measure for Moss Bros =
boss</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
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            time for Portillo</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
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            and be damned in the state of =
Victoria</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR>
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            last frontier - the comfy sofa and the lava=20
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            hunter king to flying=20
      overdraft</A></FONT><BR><BR></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- /End =
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      height=3D1><!-- Vignette V/5 Sun Dec 15 00:40:49 2002 --><FONT=20
      face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif size=3D5><B>Property needs dose =
of cold=20
      turkey</B></FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=3Darial,helvetica,sans-serif=20
      size=3D3>Mortgage equity is funding a nationwide spending spree, =
but British=20
      industry is quietly hoping that house prices will crash, writes =
Faisal=20
      Islam</FONT> <BR><BR><FONT face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif =
size=3D2><B>Sunday=20
      December 15, 2002<BR><A href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/">The=20
      Observer</A></B> <BR><BR></FONT><FONT =
face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif=20
      size=3D2>The sirens are sounding. A bubble is about to burst. The=20
      International Monetary Fund, the Bank of England, senior Treasury=20
      officials, luxury home developers,=20
      <TABLE cellSpacing=3D0 cellPadding=3D0 width=3D212 align=3Dright =
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          <TD width=3D212 colSpan=3D2 =
height=3D12></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>and ratings=20
      agency Standard &amp; Poor's, have all warned about unsustainable =
house=20
      prices during the past week. Tomorrow, a new economic survey will =
warn=20
      that house prices will fall by 20 per cent.=20
      <P>And while homeowners may be appalled by that, other interest =
groups,=20
      such as Britain's struggling manufacturers, will be celebrating.=20
      <P>Britain has become a housing economy, a country whose primary =
business=20
      is property. The obsession saps entrepreneurial energy, deflecting =
it from=20
      invention and wealth-creation to loft extensions and negotiation =
of 110=20
      per cent mortgage deals. It prevents the Bank of England from =
helping the=20
      manufacturing sector. It risks removing incentives to work harder =
by=20
      placing that first rung on the property ladder out of reach of =
most=20
      individuals.=20
      <P>Then there is the knock-on effect on wage inflation, which may =
be=20
      expressed directly in the figures or in a rising tide of strike =
action=20
      from firefighters and other public sector workers. Put simply, if=20
      inflation is bad, it is difficult to see why rampant house price =
inflation=20
      can credibly be seen as anything good. Housing booms, whilst =
superficially=20
      attractive, suffocate more productive elements of the economy.=20
      <P>'The Bank of England is now increasingly being placed in an =
impossible=20
      position by this housing market, where the only tool available to =
it=20
      [interest rates] cannot be used to help a manufacturing sector =
which=20
      urgently needs lower rates,' says Martin Temple, director-general =
of the=20
      Engineering Employers' Federation.=20
      <P>Britain's economy moves to the rhythms of the housing market. =
The surge=20
      in house prices kept the British economy relatively buoyant this =
year. The=20
      Bank of England's 'Two speeds are better than none' strategy =
appears to=20
      have worked in the short term. House price inflation has helped =
stave off=20
      the dreaded deflation. But at what long-term cost?=20
      <P>Consumers expect too much from their homes. As well as keeping =
them=20
      warm, homes now serve as a surrogate pension, and a supplementary =
pay=20
      packet. Hundreds of thousands of toasts will be made to the =
buoyant=20
      housing market this Christmas. Many a DVD player, car or =
glittering=20
      present will have been funded from the rising value of domestic =
property.=20
      <P>Around =A312.5 billion of mortgage equity was withdrawn between =
July and=20
      September. HSBC economists say that it is 'being spent fast on big =
ticket=20
      items'. Two-thirds of the growth in consumer spending this year =
has been=20
      paid for by remortgaging. The Bank of England's Financial =
Stability Review=20
      notes that mortgage equity withdrawal is now '6 per cent of =
post-tax=20
      incomes, not far short of the 8 per cent peak recorded in the =
housing=20
      market boom of the late 1980s'. The last three months of this year =
are=20
      likely to see record levels of spending funded in this manner.=20
      <P>Is this an unsustainable bubble?=20
      <P>The problem with bubbles is that identification is only really =
possible=20
      after they burst. And even if there is a bubble no one can deny =
that there=20
      is still a lot of money to be made by buying and selling at the =
right=20
      time.=20
      <P>'Money illusion' is part of the problem. The market has been =
propelled=20
      by low interest rates decreasing the cost of servicing debt. =
However, low=20
      inflation, a penchant for cashing in on house price increases by=20
      withdrawing equity, and introduction of mortgages worth over 100 =
per cent=20
      means that many homeowners increasingly face the prospect of never =
paying=20
      off their mortgages. Some brokers are beginning to offer 50-year=20
      mortgages. Either way, mortgage-holders are set to have huge =
stocks of=20
      debt hanging round their necks for a far longer period.=20
      <P>The Bank's Financial Stability Review showed that the household =

      sector's debt-to-income ratio is already 120 per cent. In the US =
it stands=20
      at 105 per cent; its previous peak in the UK, in the late 1980s, =
was 102=20
      per cent.=20
      <P>The persistence of debt at these levels must, at some point, =
temper the=20
      demand for it. Last week's warning by an influential ratings =
agency that=20
      Britain's banks faced 'potential stress' suggests that pressure =
may affect=20
      the supply of credit too.=20
      <P>But there is almost panic among buyers about not being in the =
market=20
      for fear of never being able to afford a property. This fuels a=20
      willingness to forget saving a deposit when loans, such as =
Northern=20
      Rock's, offer up to 125 per cent of the value of a property.=20
      <P>'House prices don't necessarily reflect strong economic =
fundamentals -=20
      more the expectations about the economic cycle. But it's hard to =
believe=20
      that the upswing since 1996 reflects improved expectations alone. =
It's=20
      very hard to rationalise these house price levels. There will have =
to be a=20
      correction, now is not the time to be introducing 110 per cent =
mortgages,'=20
      says Dr Gavin Cameron, a specialist in housing market economics at =
Oxford=20
      University.=20
      <P>Experts in behavioural finance see some parallels between =
Britain's=20
      housing market and the dotcom boom. Price peaks are being =
justified by=20
      reference to some sort of 'new paradigm', buyers are contorting =
themselves=20
      to take on debt to finance purchases. And there are suggestions =
that=20
      housebuilders are drip feeding supply on to the market to keep =
prices=20
      high, just as bankers did with hi-tech shares in the late 1990s.=20
      <P>'On the plus side a booming housing market gives people =
collateral to=20
      invest,' says Cameron. But a bubble is defined when this =
collateral is=20
      funnelled back into the same market, increasing demand, and prices =
yet=20
      further, and sucking yet more capital into the market. Is this =
where the=20
      housing market is today?=20
      <P>'Bubble' is not a word in the Bank of England's lexicon. But =
City=20
      economists are worried by the conflicting messages that came from=20
      Threadneedle Street last week.=20
      <P>'The Bank is at sixes and sevens over the housing market. Last =
week's=20
      comments will only add to the growing sense of a central bank that =
does=20
      not know which way to turn,' says Danny Gabay, UK economist at JP =
Morgan.=20
      <P>He said that some noises from the members of the Monetary =
Policy=20
      Committee who have voted for a cut in rates amounted to offering a =
'put=20
      option' for the housing market.=20
      <P>Price rises will continue to accelerate if the Bank can be =
relied on to=20
      cut rates, further inflating a bubble already growing at 30 per =
cent,=20
      year-on-year.=20
      <P>However, the noises from Bank hawks suggest that rate rises =
aimed at=20
      slowly deflating a consumer spending bubble may be a long way off =
too.=20
      <P>Ultimately, a poor round of City bonus payments and a more =
cautious=20
      consumer may help the housing market cool of its own accord. But =
the=20
      latest figures show little sign of this benign outcome. The =
structural=20
      issue of a limited housing supply militates against it. But there =
are more=20
      than a few businesses that would quietly welcome a crash.=20
      <P>'What tends to be missed is the effect on wage inflation. This=20
      five-year bull run in house prices has distorted activity towards =
property=20
      development and is distorting wages up,' says Cameron.=20
      <P>The question is, how soon after Christmas will a dose of cold =
turkey=20
      help Britain's economy wean itself off the property addiction? =
</FONT><BR><!-- Vignette V/5 Sun Dec 15 00:56:00 2002 --><!-- Start =
article trailblock widget --><BR><FONT=20
      face=3DGeneva,Arial,sans-serif size=3D2><B>Calculators</B><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/Money/calculator/form/0,1456,603156,00.=
html">Mortgage=20
      repayment</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/Money/calculator/form/0,1456,603157,00.=
html">Mortgage=20
      amount</A><BR><BR><B>Special reports</B><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/Money/houseprices/0,1456,594818,00.html=
">House=20
      prices</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/Money/interestrates/0,6453,594819,00.ht=
ml">Interest=20
      rates</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/Shopping/household/page/0,1586,682652,0=
0.html">Shopping:=20
      guide to property websites</A><BR><BR><B>Related =
sections</B><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/Money/homebuyers/0,12414,790856,00.html=
">Homebuyers'=20
      diaries</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/Money/homebuying/mortgages/0,1456,56776=
1,00.html">Mortgages</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.observer.co.uk/Money/homebuying/movinghome/0,1456,5677=
64,00.html">Moving=20
      home</A><BR><BR><B>Useful links</B><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.housing.detr.gov.uk/" target=3D_NEW>Government =
housing=20
      policy</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.housing.dtlr.gov.uk/information/index16.htm"=20
      target=3D_NEW>Starter Home Initiative</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.housingcorp.gov.uk/" target=3D_NEW>The Housing=20
      Corporation</A><BR><A href=3D"http://www.ihos.org.uk/"=20
      target=3D_NEW>Independent housing ombudsman</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.housingnet.co.uk/" target=3D_NEW>UK housing =
information=20
      resource</A><BR><A =
href=3D"http://www.mortgagecode.org.uk/mortgagecode.html"=20
      target=3D_NEW>Mortgage Code Compliance Board</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.naea.co.uk/" target=3D_NEW>National Association =
of Estate=20
      Agents</A><BR><A=20
      =
href=3D"http://www.cml.org.uk/servlet/dycon/zt-cml/cml/live/en/cml/home" =

      target=3D_NEW>Council of Mortgage Lenders</A><BR><A=20
      href=3D"http://www.easier2move.co.uk/" target=3D_NEW>Easier2move - =
online=20
      conveyancing</A><BR><A href=3D"http://www.upmystreet.com/"=20
      target=3D_NEW>UpMyStreet - the guide to your =
neighbourhood</A><BR><BR><BR><!-- End article trailblock widget =
--><BR><!-- Vignette V/5 Sun Dec 15 03:07:41 2002 --><!-- Observer =
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