BBC News | WALES | Wales 'missed = out' on =A31.5bn

Mistakes by government statisticians could = have cost=20 Wales =A31.5bn in European aid in the 1980s and early 1990s, it = has been=20 claimed.=20

According to new research carried out for Nuffield College in = Oxford,=20 poor analysis of wages and salaries could have cost west Wales and = the=20 south Wales valleys up to =A31.5 billion.=20

Both areas - which also include deprived parts of north Wales - = have=20 since been identified as one of the poorest areas of Europe and = now=20 qualify for =A31.2bn of top level European funding.=20

But in a report for the Economic Journal, published on Monday, = academic=20 Gavin Cameron claimed Wales missed out on regeneration funding = which could=20 have come much earlier.=20

He stressed the importance of accurate statistics being made = available=20 to the fledgling Welsh Assembly.=20

Wealth Gap=20

According to the reseach poor analysis hid the full extent of = the=20 wealth gap between the south of England and other areas of the UK = between=20 1979 and 1995.=20

The European grants now being made to west Wales and the = Valleys under=20 Objective One funding could have been received a generation = earlier,=20 according to Mr Cameron.=20

"The point is that it could have been created up to more than a = decade=20 earlier if the statistics had been accurate," he said.=20

The academic claims the mistake happened because, for reasons = which are=20 still unexplained, the Inland Revenue could not work out to which = parts of=20 the UK 12% of its tax records related.=20

Rogue Records=20

Government statisticians working out measures such as = income-per-head,=20 which are critical in applying for EU aid, just assumed that the = rogue=20 records were evenly spread across the UK, said the study.=20

It later emerged that a disproportionate amount were from south = east=20 England, so the north-south and west-east gaps were = underestimated.=20

Economists were baffled by statistics showing relative earnings = standing still in the south-east in the booming late 80s and = picking up=20 when the recession hit in the early 1990s.=20

Mismeasurement=20

"It's possible that if the mismeasurement had not occurred, a = Welsh=20 region with reconstituted boundaries might have qualified for = structural=20 funds in the 1989-93 and/or 1994-9 funding rounds," said Cameron.=20

"Had west Wales and the Valleys been eligible, it might have = expected=20 funding of around =A3130m a year," he added.=20

Winning =A3130m annually for each of the two five-year periods = would have=20 added up to =A31.5 billion to the regeneration effort, he said.=20

He said it illustrated the vital importance of having accurate=20 statistics on which to base economic policies.=20

It is an issue confronting both the Assembly and the Scottish=20 Parliament as they strive to make a difference to economic growth = through=20 policies to boost industry, education and communities.=20

3D""=20

Had West Wales and the Valleys been = eligible, it=20 might have expected funding of around =A3130m a = year

Gavin Cameron =

According to the research the collection of regional statistics = suffered under the Conservatives.=20

The Office for National Statistics is working to improve = matters, but=20 Welsh and Scottish ministers are often working in a vacuum, said = Mr=20 Cameron.=20

He said the Scottish parliament's executive has responded by = setting up=20 an independent committee of academic, business and public agency=20 economists, statisticians and analysts to advise it on improving=20 statistical information.=20


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